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Supply Chain Q1 2025: Market Condition Updates

Supply Chain Key Topics

Supply Chain Key Topics

Tariffs + Trade Wars

      • Gallium and geranium are used in semiconductors, and this could cause increased pricing and lead time.
  • There were some tariff increases on 1/1/25 for COO China parts, going from 25% to 50%. Further potential increases to products with COO China, along with expansion for COO Mexico and Canada are being monitored.

Lead Times (LT)

  • 2024 caused confusion within supply chain as true demand needs were masked by over-inventory at OEMs and CMs.
      • Could lead to supply chain being underprepared for demand spikes in 2025, causing increased LT.

Market Trends

Overall:  LTs are stable, and Pricing is relatively stable with some annual increases.

What to Watch:

    • Analog, Memory, Mosfets, and Microcontroller LTs are starting to increase.
    • Pricing is mixed with more commoditized products decreasing in pricing while some manufacturers have high costs from capital investments resulting in increasing pricing.
    • Although LTs are largely stable, they are expected to increase in 2025 as demand normalizes and increases.
        • Normalization will be bounce back from lesser market demand in 2024 due to the over-inventory position at many OEMs and CMs.
    • 2025 demand spikes potentially causing LTs to extend quickly, and pricing to follow.

Full Market Conditions Report from Future

(click images to view a larger version)

Lead Time Trends

Emerald Technologies Lead Time Trends2

Pricing Trends

Emerald Technologies Pricing Trends2

Market Updates by Category

  • Integrated Circuits:  Rising demand for MPS, MAXIM, and AD Linear Tech products is causing extended lead times (18–40 weeks) and price increases, while Marvell announced a 10% price hike effective January 2025. Analog is assessing distribution channel partners, which may affect sourcing or negotiated pricing.
  • FPGAs:  Altera and Xilinx are implementing price increases (7–20%) due to rising costs and limited competition, with further adjustments expected in 2025.
  • Passives:  Resistor and capacitor supplies remain unstable, with Murata and Samsung facing lead times of 12–16 weeks and fluctuating availability. Tantalum capacitor leads times have lead time and availability fluctuation across manufacturers. Murata and Samsung capacitors are experiencing some disruption due to extended lead times, but varying supply levels available in the market masking some of the lead time extensions.
  • Interconnect:  Small pricing increases are expected to cover rising overhead and raw material prices. Average lead times vary among the subcategories and manufacturers with Glenair at the low end with 2-4 week lead times and ITT and TE Connectivity at the high end with lead times ranging from 9-34 weeks.
  • eMMC:  Samsung is discontinuing low-capacity products, shifting to 32GB minimum, while SanDisk targets smaller capacities but may face availability challenges.
  • RDIMM:  Pricing now varies based on inventory date codes, with newer stocks commanding premiums.
  • SSD:  Weak demand is driving price pressures, except for enterprise SSDs, which show increased activity for Q1 2025.
  • HDD:  Steady demand for 22TB and 24TB SATA drives has extended lead times to 6–8 weeks, with minimal price changes.
  • Motherboards:  Supermicro faces 5+ month lead times due to manufacturing shifts and backlogs, complicating fulfillment.